Working paper, April 2020

This working paper presents a review of evidence relating to COVID-19 and education settings. It forms part of
background work commissioned by the Ministry of Health (the Ministry) by the Director of Public Health to help inform
the response to COVID-19.

Recently emerging evidence suggests closure of education institutions has a limited role in reducing COVID-19
morbidity and mortality. Best case scenario modelling, which may not apply to Aotearoa/New Zealand, suggests it may
reduce COVID-19 by 2-4 percent. Real world evidence from previous coronavirus outbreaks (SARS) and one evaluation
of the impact of closing schools in Japan on COVID-19 do not suggest a large impact of closing schools on reducing
coronavirus infections. This is, in part, because of the developing understanding of the reduced role of children in
transmission of coronavirus in comparison to influenza virus, which most literature on the effectiveness of school
closures in epidemics and pandemics arises from.
Education institution closures have profound and enduring impacts on health, educational, economic and social
inequities. These need to be monitored and, where possible, mitigated.

There are a range of measures that could be applied in educational settings in Aotearoa/New Zealand to either replace
full closure or as part of a stepped down response. These include measures to reduce the number of social contacts
(eg, staggering class start and end times, closing common spaces, splitting classes of the teaching week, physical
distancing) and reducing the likelihood of transmission (eg, hand hygiene measures in schools, cleaning commonly
used surfaces). A staged, flexible risk-based approach would need to be taken, with accompanying evaluation, as the
evidence for these interventions is also poor. High-quality community surveillance should be in place to support this.
Moreover considering how any proposed ‘step down’ measures would impact on inequity is crucial.

Research in this area needs to be monitored closely as more relevant COVID-19 specific studies will emerge. (Executive summary). The paper notes the role of ECE and schools for mitigating the impact on family violence as one of the reasons to reopen, see Adverse consequences – equity (these are informed assumptions)" under Social, page 10. Follow the website link for paper in Word format. Record #6595